Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabf6…9bae sports 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$178 (-13%) realized −$178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$123
14 days−$293
30 days−$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$75
politics 17% −$155
other 12% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -14.7% -22.8% 43% 43% -23.1%
≤30d 47 -19.4% -27.1% 43% 40% -28.6%
≤90d 47 -19.4% -27.1% 43% 40% -28.6%
all 47 -19.4% -27.1% 43% 40% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 40% -28.6%
10% -34.1% 38% -35.4%
15% -40.5% 32% -41.7%
20% -46.3% 26% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$24 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 27
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage10d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $99 −$95 -95%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $27 −$26 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $46 +$80 +172%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $22 −$21 -94%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $17 +$5 +32%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $28 +$29 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $74 +$18 +24%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $30 +$18 +60%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $13 +$13 +97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $19 +$24 +124%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$7 +71%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$15 -88%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$27 +262%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +104%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$32 +206%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 +$8 +40%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $50 +$27 +54%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $13 +$10 +78%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $50 +$12 +23%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $15 −$13 -86%
Bolivia to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $50 +$8 +16%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $77 +$28 +36%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $79 −$2 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $234 −$155 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 4¢ $5 0m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $99 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $27 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $46 19h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $15 19h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 19h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 21h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $22 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $22 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 75¢ $17 22h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $57 23h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $28 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $7 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $35 28h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 42h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $74 46h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $13 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $30 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $19 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $17 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $10 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $17 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.91 · official $2.91 (match) · 81 history records