Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabf4…66ac crypto 447 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$29 (+1%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate49%217W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$1
14 days−$23
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$13
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -1.8% -11.2% 65% 4% -8.9%
≤30d 249 +7.6% -2.6% 54% 14% -5.3%
≤90d 446 -3.4% -12.6% 49% 24% -9.2%
all 446 -3.4% -12.6% 49% 24% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 24% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 18% -17.9%
15% -28.6% 13% -25.8%
20% -35.6% 12% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses217 / 229
Open positions0
Markets (closed)446 / 447
History coverage75d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 446 Trades
no open positions (136 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $7 −$4 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 09 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 09 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $8 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2171 history records