Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:24:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AB 0xabf1…fcbf sports 118 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$640 (+10%) realized +$647 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%39W / 55L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$252
14 days+$679
30 days+$928
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$1,132
other 8% −$210
crypto 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +104.0% +84.6% 45% 41% +46.9%
≤30d 94 +38.0% +24.9% 41% 39% +4.6%
≤90d 94 +38.0% +24.9% 41% 39% +4.6%
all 94 +38.0% +24.9% 41% 39% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.9% 39% +4.6%
10% +12.9% 38% -5.4%
15% +2.0% 37% -14.6%
20% -8.0% 34% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$40 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$647
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses39 / 55
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions4
Markets (closed)94 / 118
History coverage16d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $31 +$43 +140%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 +$18 +360%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $20 +$25 +123%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $36 −$36 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $1 +$14 +1378%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $30 $0 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$6 +30%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $15 −$2 -12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $35 −$34 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 AND Mo Jun 25 $51 +$51 +100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 −$5 -51%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Portuga Jun 24 $10 +$74 +718%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -90%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 AND Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Fra Jun 23 $31 +$83 +270%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $39 +$86 +221%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$40 +393%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $152 +$57 +38%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$9 -17%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 +$5 +5%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $152 +$102 +67%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$52 +51%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$3 -9%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$2 -5%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $21 −$3 -13%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $112 −$110 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $203 +$148 +73%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $22 −$21 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -11%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $255 −$250 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 +$131 +129%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 +$189 +93%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 +$80 +392%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$17 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 8m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 27m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $31 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $45 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 4h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 5h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 SELL Over $0 5h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 12¢ $5 6h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $30 14h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 AND Jordan BUY $10 14h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 23h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $1 23h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 47¢ $31 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 81¢ $26 26h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 31¢ $13 26h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $15 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 29h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $30 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes $0 31h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes $4 31h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $20 32h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 39¢ $20 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 37h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $31 37h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 AND New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 AND Ca BUY 31¢ $29 38h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY 30¢ $37 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 46¢ $51 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Cur BUY 22¢ $46 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL 25¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.64 · official $18.64 (match) · 208 history records