Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:45:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AB 0xabe9…4424 world 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 716d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,029 (+26%) realized +$5,298 · open −$269
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%22W / 43L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$2,064now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$751
30 days−$771
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$5,710
other 33% −$691
politics 2% −$29
sports 1% +$14
economics 0% −$10
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -97.7% -97.9% 0% 0% -97.9%
≤30d 6 -85.0% -86.4% 0% 0% -78.4%
≤90d 7 -84.9% -86.3% 0% 0% -83.5%
all 65 -12.1% -20.5% 34% 29% +18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 29% +18.9%
10% -28.1% 28% +7.6%
15% -35.1% 26% -2.8%
20% -41.4% 23% -12.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$497 vs −$135 · ×3.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

716d coverage
Net worth$2,064
Realized+$5,298
Unrealized−$269
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses22 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)65 / 70
History coverage716d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $450 $449 −$1 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $455 $448 −$6 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $450 $438 −$12 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $450 $434 −$16 (-4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $527 $294 −$232 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $200 −$197 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $218 −$154 -71%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $307 −$133 -43%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $2,157 −$1,819 -84%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 25 $746 +$1,244 +167%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? Mar 25 $1,199 +$1,077 +90%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 25 $912 +$1,488 +163%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? Mar 25 $550 +$1,950 +354%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 25 $857 +$2,713 +317%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30? Feb 18 $82 −$82 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 18 $270 −$32 -12%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 12 $1,516 −$1,156 -76%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 26 $200 −$55 -27%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 22 $571 −$306 -54%
U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday? Jan 07 $200 +$65 +32%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 07 $41 −$40 -99%
US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026? Jan 04 $115 −$80 -70%
Nicolás Maduro seen in public by January 5? Jan 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $556 +$101 +18%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $477 +$225 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 3PM ET Jan 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31? Jan 03 $1,162 +$7 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Jan 03 $226 −$195 -86%
Israel strikes Iran before 2026? Dec 30 $20 +$29 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 9PM ET Dec 20 $3 +$2 +96%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 17 $1,742 −$555 -32%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8? Oct 10 $17 −$14 -79%
Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5? Oct 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? Oct 09 $153 +$187 +122%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10? Oct 09 $172 +$938 +546%
EU sanctions on Iran by September 30? Oct 01 $476 +$584 +123%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Oct 01 $181 +$7 +4%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 27 $18 −$2 -14%
Linea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Sep 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? Sep 18 $50 −$25 -50%
Linea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Sep 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Israel strike on Damascus by September 15? Sep 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Man City win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 28 $129 +$4 +3%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 11 $83 +$60 +72%
Will Borussia Dortmund or Lille advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Real Madrid or Atlético de Madrid advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $463 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $468 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $461 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $461 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $260 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 13d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 10¢ $64 13d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? SELL Yes 12¢ $41 13d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? SELL Yes 12¢ $41 13d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $202 13d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 13d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 29¢ $203 14d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 40¢ $200 14d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 14d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 14d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? SELL Yes 11¢ $93 14d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 12¢ $104 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 0¢ $20 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $338 64d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $120 89d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $24 89d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $18 89d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 89d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $24 89d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 89d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $92 89d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $24 90d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 90d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,063.61 · official $2,063.61 (match) · 345 history records