Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:24:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabe7…1b0c crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$50 (-37%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%8W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day61.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-35.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -29.1% -35.9% 36% 32% -48.1%
≤30d 22 -29.1% -35.9% 36% 32% -48.1%
≤90d 22 -29.1% -35.9% 36% 32% -48.1%
all 22 -29.1% -35.9% 36% 32% -48.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.9% 32% -48.1%
10% ← realistic here -42.0% 32% -53.1%
15% -47.6% 27% -57.6%
20% -52.7% 23% -61.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses8 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day61.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$11 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$5 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $14 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records