trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| all | 23 | +2.8% | -7.0% | 100% | 13% | -8.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.0% | 13% | -8.7% |
| 10% | -15.9% | 4% | -17.4% |
| 15% | -24.0% | 0% | -25.4% |
| 20% | -31.5% | 0% | -32.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $111 | $111 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $100 | $100 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $89 | $0 | +0% |
| Trump out as President by May 31? | Jun 01 | $123 | $0 | +0% |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | May 09 | $211 | $0 | +0% |
| Will "Ronaldinho: The One and Only" be the #2 global Netflix show this | Apr 22 | $210 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Meta (META) finish week of April 6 above $510? | Apr 11 | $209 | +$1 | +0% |
| Timberwolves vs. 76ers | Apr 05 | $208 | +$2 | +1% |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Mar 31 | $1,067 | +$1 | +0% |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner | Mar 23 | $1,056 | +$11 | +1% |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs | Mar 22 | $1,014 | +$42 | +4% |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 16 above $150? | Mar 21 | $200 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 16 above $130? | Mar 21 | $332 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 16 above $60? | Mar 21 | $481 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 9 above $8.00? | Mar 14 | $1,011 | +$1 | +0% |
| Suns vs. Kings | Mar 04 | $5 | +$1 | +25% |
| Wizards vs. Magic | Mar 04 | $5 | +$1 | +11% |
| Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves | Mar 04 | $5 | +$1 | +14% |
| Thunder vs. Bulls | Mar 04 | $991 | +$3 | +0% |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $140 end of February? | Feb 28 | $1,005 | +$1 | +0% |
| Nuggets vs. Clippers | Feb 21 | $960 | +$45 | +5% |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 9 above $140? | Feb 14 | $959 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of January 19 above $4.50? | Jan 24 | $951 | +$8 | +1% |
| Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of January 5 above $285? | Jan 10 | $950 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? | Jan 02 | $949 | +$1 | +0% |