Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AB 0xabe1…af91 sports 94 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$108 (-10%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%44W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$153
7 days−$62
14 days−$60
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$74
other 6% +$15
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -11.1% -19.5% 51% 44% -15.3%
≤30d 88 -11.1% -19.5% 50% 44% -14.7%
≤90d 88 -11.1% -19.5% 50% 44% -14.7%
all 88 -11.1% -19.5% 50% 44% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 44% -14.7%
10% -27.2% 36% -22.8%
15% -34.3% 27% -30.3%
20% -40.7% 19% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses44 / 44
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 94
History coverage10d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner KOLESIE 88¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $19 +$59 +307%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 2 Czechia? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Team to Take First Corner Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $23 +$64 +276%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $22 +$1 +6%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $22 −$22 -99%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 15 $14 +$6 +40%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $27 +$3 +10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Jun 15 $16 +$2 +15%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $17 −$17 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Take First Corner Jun 15 $14 +$2 +15%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $17 −$2 -13%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -19%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $9 +$9 +99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $9 −$8 -95%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $20 +$4 +20%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $16 +$5 +29%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $11 +$5 +44%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$4 +121%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $19 +$22 +116%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $13 +$7 +52%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $24 +$2 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $16 +$8 +48%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $15 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Iraq vs. Nor BUY 34¢ $9 10m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 99¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 88¢ $18 1h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $12 2h
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $16 2h
France vs. Senegal: Team to Take First Corner BUY France 69¢ $12 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 92¢ $12 4h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 72¢ $10 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 24¢ $7 19h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $87 19h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $23 20h
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 69¢ $23 20h
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $22 21h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $21 22h
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 68¢ $22 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $20 24h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A SELL ODDIK 99¢ $20 24h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ODDIK 70¢ $14 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $14 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 66¢ $14 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 59¢ $13 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $16 27h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 75¢ $16 27h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $14 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $19 28h
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA SELL Twisted Minds 85¢ $19 28h
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA BUY Twisted Minds 73¢ $16 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $17 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $15.77 · 169 history records