Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:17:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

AB 0xabe1…2bcb other 9 markets active 3d ago coverage 714d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$9 (-8%) realized −$8 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%4W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit11%portable

Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$9

14 days−$9

30 days−$9

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-25.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-17.9%	-25.7%	50%	50%	-18.2%
≤30d	8	-17.9%	-25.7%	50%	50%	-18.2%
≤90d	8	-17.9%	-25.7%	50%	50%	-18.2%
all	8	-17.9%	-25.7%	50%	50%	-18.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.7%	50%	-18.2%
10%	-32.8%	50%	-26.0%
15%	-39.3%	50%	-33.1%
20%	-45.2%	38%	-39.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 68% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.78 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

714d coverage

Net worth$9

Realized−$8

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses4 / 4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage714d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	11¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-13%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$10	+$6	+57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$10	+$11	+105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$10	+$4	+42%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Jun 11	$20	+$11	+54%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$10	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$10	2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$16	2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$21	3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	81¢	$10	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	60¢	$10	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	48¢	$10	4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	11¢	$10	4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$10	5d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	65¢	$20	716d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.73 · official $8.73 (match) · 15 history records