Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:18:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabde…ffb1 other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$88 (-0%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate5%6W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$37
politics 20% −$5
world 4% −$1
sports 4% −$46
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -13.4%
≤30d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 6% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 105 -9.3% -17.9% 6% 3% -9.9%
all 110 -8.9% -17.5% 5% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 3% -9.9%
10% -25.4% 3% -18.5%
15% -32.6% 2% -26.4%
20% -39.2% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 87% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses6 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage93d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $198 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $217 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $34 $0 -0%
Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 01 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 01 $48 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $160 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 17 $168 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $401 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $713 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $326 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $343 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $154 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $164 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 09 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 09 $164 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $170 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $170 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $331 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $159 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 03 $164 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 01 $367 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $344 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $325 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $324 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $163 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $158 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $493 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $156 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $158 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $160 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $334 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $362 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $163 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $159 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 59m
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 26h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $13 34h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $26 2d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $27 3d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 3d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $71 5d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $32 8d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $32 8d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $28 8d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $28 9d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $27 9d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $27 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 10d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 15d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 15d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 15d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 15d
Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 18d
Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 19d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.84 · official $143.84 (match) · 329 history records