Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:42:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AB 0xabdd…2d96 sports 1072 markets active 2d ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 134d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,772 (+12%) realized +$2,764 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate64%680W / 388L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$66
14 days−$130
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$3,032
other 1% −$31
world 0% +$2
tech 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -0.8% -10.3% 69% 56% -17.5%
≤30d 168 +2.7% -7.1% 62% 56% -8.4%
≤90d 560 -18.5% -26.2% 49% 45% -15.9%
all 1068 +7.8% -2.5% 64% 59% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 59% +2.2%
10% -11.8% 56% -7.6%
15% -20.4% 50% -16.5%
20% -28.2% 36% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized+$2,764
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses680 / 388
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1068 / 1072
History coverage134d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1068 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? No 94¢ 98¢ $94 $98 +$4 (+4%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 77¢ 81¢ $62 $65 +$3 (+5%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? No 90¢ 93¢ $45 $46 +$2 (+3%)
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? No 31¢ 28¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +50%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $119 +$12 +10%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $14 +$2 +12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $22 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $40 +$6 +14%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $16 +$4 +24%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $71 −$71 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $37 +$17 +45%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $30 +$10 +33%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026- Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $49 +$11 +21%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $164 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $42 −$19 -44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $76 −$7 -9%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $41 +$36 +90%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $41 −$40 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $42 −$42 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 08 $42 −$42 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $90 +$10 +11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $50 +$11 +21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $44 +$16 +36%
Roland Garros ATP: Completed Match: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 06 $6 $0 +7%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $20 −$5 -24%
Roland Garros ATP: Completed Match: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $8 $0 +6%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 05 $18 +$12 +67%
Mensik vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 05 $10 +$20 +197%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $26 +$6 +22%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $29 −$29 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 04 $12 +$6 +46%
Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $6 $0 +1%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 04 $7 +$4 +52%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $45 −$3 -7%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 04 $33 −$15 -46%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $21 +$10 +45%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $14 +$6 +47%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 Jun 04 $3 +$2 +53%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $26 −$22 -85%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 03 $13 +$5 +36%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $15 +$15 +105%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $25 −$13 -51%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $29 +$21 +73%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alejandro Tabilo: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $43 −$43 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $10 +$6 +65%
Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $40 +$11 +28%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $2 $0 +33%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $24 +$3 +14%
Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 31 $28 +$12 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 41h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 76¢ $9 41h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? SELL Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? BUY No 90¢ $45 2d
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? SELL No 51¢ $5 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 66¢ $33 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 66¢ $66 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 63¢ $31 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 31¢ $16 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $14 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 47¢ $23 3d
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? SELL No 44¢ $3 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $16 4d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 4d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4d
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? SELL No 44¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $7 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 91¢ $40 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 87¢ $40 5d
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? SELL No 44¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $27 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $37 5d
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? SELL No 44¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 82¢ $16 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $24 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $13 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 39¢ $5 5d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026- SELL No 100¢ $11 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 52¢ $23 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.44 · official $214.54 (match) · 3500 history records