Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:56:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AB 0xabdd…cb3f sports 233 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$782 (+7%) realized +$757 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%87W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$182est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$136
7 days+$195
14 days+$757
30 days+$486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$643
other 12% +$72
crypto 0% −$13
politics 0% −$10
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +53.4% +38.8% 56% 56% +50.5%
≤30d 52 +40.7% +27.3% 44% 44% +9.1%
≤90d 210 +6.5% -3.6% 37% 37% -5.3%
all 232 +4.7% -5.2% 38% 38% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 38% -4.3%
10% -14.3% 38% -13.5%
15% -22.6% 38% -21.8%
20% -30.2% 37% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$50 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$757
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses87 / 145
Est. fees paid−$182
Open positions1
Markets (closed)232 / 233
History coverage96d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-06-27? Yes 35¢ 64¢ $30 $55 +$25 (+84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $31 +$51 +165%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 +$116 +226%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 +$46 +152%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $31 +$43 +140%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $31 +$60 +197%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 +$69 +226%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$60 +197%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$94 +307%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$53 +172%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$41 +134%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$73 +238%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 +$127 +414%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 +$53 +172%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $31 +$112 +365%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $102 +$332 +325%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 07 $31 +$60 +197%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $31 −$30 -98%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 05 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $31 −$30 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $31 +$36 +117%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $31 +$94 +307%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 04 $31 +$82 +266%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $31 −$30 -97%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $31 −$30 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 02 $51 +$116 +226%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $33 +$40 +124%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $31 +$66 +216%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $102 +$131 +129%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $239 −$235 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 30 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $109 −$106 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Yulia Starodubtseva May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 37¢ $31 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 35h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 37h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 38¢ $31 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $31 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $31 4d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $31 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $31 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 23¢ $31 8d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $31 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $31 9d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $31 10d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $31 10d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 11d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $31 11d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 12d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 40¢ $31 13d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $31 13d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 28¢ $31 14d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 21¢ $31 14d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 14d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $102 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 34¢ $102 18d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 34¢ $32 19d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 42¢ $31 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.29 · official $55.29 (match) · 425 history records