Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabdd…4ddd other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-5%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$1
sports 25% +$48
economics 13% +$4
world 13% −$32
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +36.3% +23.3% 71% 57% +16.9%
≤30d 7 +36.3% +23.3% 71% 57% +16.9%
≤90d 7 +36.3% +23.3% 71% 57% +16.9%
all 35 -18.5% -26.3% 34% 29% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 29% -3.3%
10% -33.3% 23% -12.5%
15% -39.8% 23% -21.0%
20% -45.7% 11% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage209d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $43 +$34 +80%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +42%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$10 +196%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$2 -16%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $29 +$3 +9%
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 13 $8 +$1 +14%
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jan 09 $5 −$1 -14%
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 09 $3 −$2 -69%
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 09 $5 −$3 -63%
Brevis FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 06 $1 −$1 -90%
Brevis FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 06 $3 −$2 -62%
Brevis FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jan 06 $5 −$1 -16%
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 03 $2 +$1 +49%
Will Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025? Dec 31 $4 $0 -8%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 31 $3 +$2 +88%
Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025? Dec 29 $3 $0 -6%
Will Gold close between $4500 and $4600 at the end of 2025? Dec 29 $2 −$2 -90%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 28 $5 −$1 -18%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Dec 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gold close between $4600 and $4700 at the end of 2025? Dec 24 $1 $0 -10%
Over $30M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 21 $10 +$4 +41%
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 21 $13 +$9 +65%
Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Dec 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 30 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Nov 24 $2 $0 -4%
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? Nov 24 $1 $0 -25%
Will Kingdom Come: Deliverance II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Gam Nov 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Death Stranding 2: On The Beach win Game of the Year at the 2025 Nov 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 56¢ $77 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 19h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $22 19h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $15 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? SELL No 61¢ $4 159d
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL No 20¢ $1 159d
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 30¢ $2 159d
Brevis FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 1¢ $0 162d
Brevis FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 15¢ $1 162d
Brevis FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL No 61¢ $4 162d
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? SELL No 67¢ $3 165d
Brevis FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 13¢ $1 165d
Brevis FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 73¢ $5 165d
Brevis FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 39¢ $3 165d
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY No 45¢ $2 165d
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY No 88¢ $8 165d
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 65¢ $3 166d
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 81¢ $5 166d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records