Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:38:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AB 0xabda…3823 crypto 199 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$171 (-2%) realized −$165 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%185W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day53.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$302
7 days−$213
14 days−$196
30 days−$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 +3.5% -6.3% 99% 1% -12.6%
≤30d 190 +2.3% -7.5% 97% 1% -11.5%
≤90d 190 +2.3% -7.5% 97% 1% -11.5%
all 190 +2.3% -7.5% 97% 1% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 1% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 1% -19.9%
15% -24.4% 1% -27.7%
20% -31.8% 1% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$67 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$165
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses185 / 5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)190 / 199
History coverage11d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day53.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 16? No 99¢ 50¢ $13 $7 −$6 (-49%)
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 15? Jun 16 $76 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.15 on June 15? Jun 16 $56 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 15? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $90 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $34 +$1 +3%
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $415 −$308 -74%
Will Solana reach $80 on June 14? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 14? Jun 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 13? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? Jun 14 $85 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 13? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 13? Jun 14 $309 +$12 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $22 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 13? Jun 14 $21 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 on June 13? Jun 13 $151 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 13? Jun 13 $90 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +24%
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $80 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $3 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $77 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $24 1h
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $56 2h
Will XRP dip to $1.15 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $56 2h
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 4h
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $20 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $15 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.97 · official $95.97 (match) · 584 history records