Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:43:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AB 0xabd8…553c crypto 1338 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 108d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,140 (-1%) realized −$1,136 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate73%977W / 360L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day28.5pace
Fees−$226est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$453
7 days−$207
14 days−$103
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$1,111
crypto 40% −$272
other 9% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +3.5% -6.3% 89% 16% -12.0%
≤30d 65 -3.4% -12.6% 85% 15% -9.2%
≤90d 682 -20.1% -27.7% 60% 30% -11.6%
all 1337 -2.7% -12.0% 73% 42% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 42% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 24% -19.5%
15% -28.1% 13% -27.2%
20% -35.2% 7% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$21 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$1,136
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses977 / 360
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$226
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1337 / 1338
History coverage109d ⚠
Avg bet$65
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1337 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $501 +$22 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $501 +$25 +5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $401 +$43 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $401 +$28 +7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $900 −$485 -54%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $501 +$42 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $301 −$128 -42%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $501 +$31 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $501 +$37 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $601 +$37 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $501 +$20 +4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $301 +$29 +10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $301 +$25 +8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $400 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $301 +$8 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +41%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $301 +$9 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $25 +$7 +29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $201 +$16 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $303 +$38 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $51 −$39 -77%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $401 +$19 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $351 +$14 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $300 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $251 +$15 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $301 +$9 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $401 +$7 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $301 +$13 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $201 +$19 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $404 +$7 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $501 +$10 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $101 +$5 +5%
Real Racing Club vs. Cádiz CF: Both Teams to Score May 31 $25 +$24 +95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? May 31 $180 +$5 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 30? May 31 $252 +$11 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $5 +$2 +40%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 28? May 29 $551 +$14 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 27? May 28 $501 +$9 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 26? May 27 $251 +$16 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? May 26 $500 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 25? May 26 $405 +$31 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $206 +$8 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 24? May 25 $201 +$12 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 23? May 24 $198 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 22? May 23 $85 +$14 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? May 22 $179 +$6 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $522 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $501 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $526 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $501 5h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $401 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $429 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $401 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 46¢ $403 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 48¢ $12 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $900 33h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $544 45h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $501 46h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $69 46h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 38¢ $104 46h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $301 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $532 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $501 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $538 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $501 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $639 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $601 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $521 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $501 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $330 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $301 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $326 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $301 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $404 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $309 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 98¢ $400 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.10 · official $46.10 (match) · 3500 history records