Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AB 0xabd3…bf56 crypto 935 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$351 (+3%) realized +$314 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%448W / 486L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day37.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$2,951
sports 3% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -82.2% -83.9% 7% 7% -70.4%
≤30d 875 -6.3% -15.2% 48% 45% -11.7%
≤90d 934 -5.8% -14.8% 48% 45% -11.6%
all 934 -5.8% -14.8% 48% 45% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 45% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 41% -20.0%
15% -30.4% 35% -27.8%
20% -37.2% 29% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$314
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses448 / 486
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)934 / 935
History coverage42d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day37.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 934 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 61¢ 98¢ $60 $97 +$37 (+61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 295 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $219 −$147 -67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 17 $101 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $519 −$354 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$16 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $176 −$63 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$39 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$20 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $241 −$464 -193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$12 -192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$20 -193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$20 -193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$20 -193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$30 -195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$6 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$20 -192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$20 -192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$30 -194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$4 -188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$6 -192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$8 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$17 -190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$31 -193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$20 -191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $43 −$28 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$40 -194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$20 -190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$38 -194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$20 -190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$20 -190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$39 -193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$30 -192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$40 -193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$43 -193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$20 -190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$30 -191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$4 -187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$46 -192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$20 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$60 -194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$30 -115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$60 -193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$56 -193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$66 -193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$73 -194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$72 -193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$70 -193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$70 -193%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $62 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $72 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $208 21m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 73¢ $97 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $311 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $40 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $42 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $93 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $155 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $35 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $83 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $78 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $83 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.54 · official $93.93 · 3300 history records