Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:51:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabcd…1119 weather 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate86%30W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$17
weather 36% −$19
sports 9% +$3
other 5% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -12.3% -20.6% 75% 50% -20.7%
≤30d 4 -12.3% -20.6% 75% 50% -20.7%
≤90d 11 -0.6% -10.1% 82% 27% -11.8%
all 35 -3.4% -12.6% 86% 20% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 20% -10.1%
10% -20.9% 6% -18.7%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$19 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses30 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage153d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 28? No 85¢ 86¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 27? Jun 27 $33 +$7 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $30 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $26 +$6 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 23? May 23 $24 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 1? May 04 $20 +$5 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 30? Apr 30 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 1? Apr 01 $18 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 30? Mar 30 $19 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 30? Mar 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 30? Mar 30 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 21? Mar 21 $17 $0 +3%
76ers vs. Cavaliers Mar 18 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 4? Mar 04 $32 −$16 -49%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 29? Feb 28 $39 −$39 -100%
Spurs vs. Nets Feb 28 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Feb 21 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Feb 21 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Feb 21 $12 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 18? Feb 21 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on February 18? Feb 21 $12 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on February 1 Feb 17 $12 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 11? Feb 12 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on February 7? Feb 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on February 10? Feb 10 $13 +$1 +5%
Wizards vs. Nets Feb 07 $13 $0 +1%
Rainbow FDV above $70M one day after launch? Feb 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Clippers vs. Kings Feb 07 $22 $0 +1%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers Feb 07 $22 $0 +1%
Pacers vs. Bucks Feb 07 $1 $0 +11%
Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch? Feb 07 $10 $0 +4%
Infinex FDV above $100M one day after launch? Feb 07 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 30? Jan 30 $499 +$50 +10%
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 29 $10 +$1 +6%
Zama auction clearing price above $0.04? Jan 27 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 28? BUY No 85¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $40 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 27? BUY No 82¢ $33 23h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $33 23h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 92¢ $30 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 96¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? BUY Yes 81¢ $26 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 23? BUY No 93¢ $24 36d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 1? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 57d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 30? BUY No 95¢ $19 59d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 1? SELL No 100¢ $19 87d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 1? BUY No 93¢ $18 88d
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 30? SELL No 87¢ $18 89d
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 30? BUY No 92¢ $19 89d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 30? SELL No 100¢ $19 89d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $19 89d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 30? BUY No 94¢ $18 90d
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 21? BUY No 97¢ $17 98d
76ers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 96¢ $16 110d
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 4? SELL No 47¢ $16 115d
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 4? BUY No 92¢ $32 115d
Spurs vs. Nets BUY Spurs 95¢ $30 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $7 126d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 18? BUY No 98¢ $11 130d
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on February 18? BUY No 96¢ $12 130d
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on February 1 BUY No 93¢ $12 134d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 11? BUY No 98¢ $11 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.18 · official $30.18 (match) · 74 history records