Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:42:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AB 0xabcd…8527 other 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$17
politics 37% −$14
sports 5% +$55
world 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 106 +5.4% -4.6% 8% 8% -9.3%
all 117 +2.4% -7.4% 10% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 7% -9.5%
10% -16.2% 6% -18.1%
15% -24.3% 6% -26.0%
20% -31.8% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×10.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage115d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $267 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $236 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $288 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $209 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $259 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $202 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $237 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $199 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $201 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $407 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 15 $286 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $516 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $514 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 11 $197 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $264 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $289 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $272 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $508 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $291 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $222 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $232 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $482 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $230 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $218 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $292 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $250 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $290 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $282 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $237 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 01 $236 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $582 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $252 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $220 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $680 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $213 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $237 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $301 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 21 $434 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $254 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $260 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 6d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 9d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 11d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 20d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $236 26d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $236 26d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $288 26d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $288 27d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $209 27d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $209 27d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $255 28d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $255 28d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $259 28d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $259 29d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $202 31d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $202 32d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $237 32d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $237 33d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $199 33d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $199 34d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $199 34d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $199 34d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $201 34d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $201 35d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $223 35d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $223 35d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $286 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.98 · official $33.98 (match) · 342 history records