Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

AB 0xabcc…10b4 sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$1,582 (+15%) realized +$1,528 · open +$54

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip

Net edge-7%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate56%15W / 12L

Drawdown48%max

Avg bet$365per market

Trades / day6.7pace

Fees−$153est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$86

7 days+$1,378

14 days+$1,443

30 days+$1,443

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)-3.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+20.0%	+8.6%	60%	60%	+10.1%
≤30d	27	+7.0%	-3.2%	56%	52%	+3.5%
≤90d	27	+7.0%	-3.2%	56%	52%	+3.5%
all	27	+7.0%	-3.2%	56%	52%	+3.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.2%	52%	+3.5%
10%	-12.5%	52%	-6.4%
15%	-20.9%	41%	-15.4%
20%	-28.7%	33%	-23.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +8% → late +6% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$281 vs −$231 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$254

Realized+$1,528

Unrealized+$54

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses15 / 12

Est. fees paid−$153

Open positions1

Markets (closed)27 / 28

History coverage11d

Avg bet$365

Trades / day6.7

Drawdown48%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner	Team Refuser	79¢	100¢	$200	$254	+$54 (+27%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 16	$404	−$338	-84%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	Jun 16	$203	−$154	-76%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	Jun 16	$406	+$363	+90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 15	$254	+$74	+29%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$255	+$663	+259%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	Jun 15	$509	+$199	+39%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$304	−$304	-100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$405	−$405	-100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	Jun 15	$413	+$492	+119%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$305	−$305	-100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 15	$405	−$405	-100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$415	+$305	+74%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$271	−$271	-100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	Jun 14	$203	+$262	+129%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 14	$284	+$287	+101%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 14	$266	+$219	+82%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 14	$297	+$137	+46%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner	Jun 14	$202	+$126	+62%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe	Jun 14	$468	+$514	+110%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner	Jun 12	$101	−$81	-80%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner	Jun 09	$107	−$107	-100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner	Jun 07	$2,143	+$517	+24%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Jun 07	$102	−$51	-50%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	Jun 07	$652	−$323	-50%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	Jun 06	$506	+$34	+7%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Jun 06	$101	+$23	+22%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Jun 06	$41	−$27	-66%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner	BUY Team Refuser	79¢	$201	1h
Spread: France (-1.5)	SELL Senegal	12¢	$66	8h
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY Senegal	68¢	$404	10h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	SELL FUT Esports	9¢	$49	12h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	BUY FUT Esports	37¢	$153	12h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	BUY FUT Esports	38¢	$50	12h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	SELL Team Vitality	100¢	$769	12h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Vitality	52¢	$406	13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL G2	56¢	$73	33h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL G2	70¢	$255	33h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner	SELL Team Vitality	100¢	$918	33h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	SELL Paper Rex	100¢	$618	33h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY G2	50¢	$254	33h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	BUY Paper Rex	49¢	$305	34h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Vitality	27¢	$255	35h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	SELL Team Vitality	16¢	$90	36h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	BUY Team Vitality	34¢	$204	36h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	SELL EDward Gaming	100¢	$905	36h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	BUY EDward Gaming	45¢	$413	37h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	BUY FUT Esports	55¢	$304	38h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner	SELL EDward Gaming	100¢	$720	38h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner	BUY EDward Gaming	55¢	$405	38h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner	BUY EDward Gaming	63¢	$202	39h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner	BUY EDward Gaming	52¢	$213	39h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner	BUY TheMongolz	48¢	$305	40h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY TheMongolz	60¢	$405	42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	BUY Team Falcons	43¢	$203	2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$571	2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	47¢	$271	2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL Aurora Gaming	100¢	$485	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.48 · official $254.48 (match) · 80 history records