Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:13:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabc7…4835 politics 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate14%10W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$5
other 16% −$13
sports 16% −$2
crypto 7% $0
culture 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -49.9% -54.7% 50% 0% -22.6%
≤30d 5 -19.9% -27.6% 60% 0% -12.8%
≤90d 5 -19.9% -27.6% 60% 0% -12.8%
all 70 -10.9% -19.3% 14% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 1% -9.9%
10% -27.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -34.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -40.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses10 / 60
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage270d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $58 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $67 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $66 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 24 $66 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 25 $136 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 21 $66 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 13 $1 $0 -22%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $66 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $214 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 30 $69 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $76 $0 -1%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 28 $68 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 26 $68 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $70 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 23 $284 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $75 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $68 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 15 $68 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 13? Jan 14 $68 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 12 $1 $0 -25%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 12 $67 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 10 $4 $0 +7%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 10 $65 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $146 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 07 $1 $0 -50%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 07 $143 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 05 $69 $0 -0%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Jan 03 $70 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 01 $69 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 28 $71 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 28 $71 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 25 $70 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $143 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 20 $1 $0 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 18? Dec 19 $69 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $70 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 12 $70 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 10 $69 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 08 $72 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 05 $75 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 02 $71 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 28 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 28 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 26 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 24 $72 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $58 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $58 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $67 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $66 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $66 24d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $66 100d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $67 104d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $68 114d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $68 115d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $66 118d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $66 126d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 126d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 132d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $66 132d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $66 134d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 138d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 139d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $68 139d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $69 141d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 142d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $68 142d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $68 143d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 143d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 143d
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $68 143d
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $68 144d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $70 145d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $70 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.82 · official $2.82 (match) · 293 history records