Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:18:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AB 0xabc6…9637 politics 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$133 (+14%) realized +$133 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%6W / 14L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$141
politics 10% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -12.7% -21.0% 0% 0% -21.0%
≤90d 7 -9.6% -18.2% 0% 0% -17.1%
all 20 +2.6% -7.2% 30% 25% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 25% +4.7%
10% -16.1% 15% -5.3%
15% -24.2% 15% -14.5%
20% -31.6% 15% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$7 · ×5.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses6 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage106d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $95 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2 $0 -12%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2 $0 -13%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $13 −$1 -10%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 15 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $19 −$1 -7%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $6 $0 -9%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 24 $46 +$54 +117%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 19 $83 +$16 +19%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 19 $93 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 19 $101 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 19 $85 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 19 $116 +$61 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 19 $85 +$84 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 19 $96 −$55 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $95 1h
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 20d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 20d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 20d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 20d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 70d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 70d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 73d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 73d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 73d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 73d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.95 · official $94.95 (match) · 257 history records