Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:01:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AB 0xabc3…10ae crypto 204 markets active 1h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$360 (+8%) realized +$44 · open +$316
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%75W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$681now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$118
sports 19% +$27
other 11% +$122
world 0% +$11
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 194 +8.8% -1.5% 39% 39% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 39% -10.3%
10% -11.0% 38% -18.9%
15% -19.6% 35% -26.7%
20% -27.5% 30% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$21 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$681
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$316
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses75 / 119
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions10
Markets (closed)194 / 204
History coverage194d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 12¢ 50¢ $45 $182 +$137 (+304%)
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5AM ET Up 27¢ 55¢ $49 $99 +$49 (+100%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 40¢ 40¢ $98 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 6¢ 50¢ $10 $80 +$70 (+704%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Walczaki 59¢ 70¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Juan Carlos Prado vs Daniel Evans Juan Carlos Prado 27¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 21¢ 40¢ $25 $48 +$23 (+93%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 32¢ 50¢ $25 $39 +$14 (+56%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 7¢ 50¢ $4 $28 +$24 (+633%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2025-12-26? Dec 26 $67 −$67 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) Dec 26 $50 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Dec 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Dec 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Dec 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Dec 26 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Dec 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Dec 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Dec 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Dec 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Dec 26 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Dec 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Dec 25 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Dec 25 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Dec 25 $10 +$24 +245%
Solana Up or Down - December 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Dec 25 $25 +$85 +342%
Solana Up or Down - December 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Dec 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Dec 25 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Dec 25 $0 $0 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Dec 25 $50 +$26 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Dec 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Dec 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Dec 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Dec 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Dec 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Dec 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Dec 25 $30 −$30 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Dec 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Dec 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Dec 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Dec 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Dec 25 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Dec 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Dec 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Dec 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Dec 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Dec 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Dec 25 $10 +$27 +270%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Dec 25 $20 +$47 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Dec 25 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Dec 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Dec 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Dec 25 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Dec 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Dec 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Dec 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Dec 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Dec 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Dec 25 $11 −$6 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Dec 25 $10 +$82 +816%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $99 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Juan Carlos Prado vs Daniel Evans BUY Juan Carlos Prado 27¢ $51 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 59¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win on 2025-12-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $4 178d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $20 178d
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 178d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 178d
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 178d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 178d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 178d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 178d
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 178d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Invictus Gaming 75¢ $50 178d
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 178d
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $681.30 · official $662.74 · 420 history records