Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabbf…124a crypto 247 markets active 5h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%126W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$62
14 days−$64
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$11
sports 0% −$2
other 0% −$1
tech 0% +$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -22.8% -30.1% 50% 41% -28.0%
≤30d 220 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 43% -17.6%
≤90d 226 -8.2% -17.0% 50% 42% -16.9%
all 247 -4.5% -13.6% 51% 44% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 44% -11.4%
10% -21.8% 38% -19.9%
15% -29.4% 33% -27.6%
20% -36.3% 28% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses126 / 121
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)247 / 247
History coverage114d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 247 Trades
no open positions (117 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +123%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +136%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $2 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $11 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $3 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 438 history records