Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:23:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabbd…af1c crypto 179 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$25 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%165W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$22
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$12
politics 5% +$4
finance 4% −$18
other 3% +$1
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 -0.9% -10.3% 97% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 171 -1.0% -10.4% 96% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 171 -1.0% -10.4% 96% 0% -10.5%
all 171 -1.0% -10.4% 96% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -10.5%
10% -19.0% 0% -19.1%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses165 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)171 / 179
History coverage10d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Up 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 95¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 12? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $15 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $15 19h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 97¢ $15 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.53 · official $146.53 (match) · 352 history records