Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:16:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
AB 0xabbc…04a3 sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$27 (+8%) realized +$83 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +46.7% +32.7% 57% 57% +42.0%
≤30d 7 +46.7% +32.7% 57% 57% +42.0%
≤90d 7 +46.7% +32.7% 57% 57% +42.0%
all 7 +46.7% +32.7% 57% 57% +42.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +32.7% 57% +42.0%
10% ← realistic here +20.0% 43% +28.4%
15% +8.4% 43% +16.0%
20% -2.2% 43% +4.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$2 · ×8.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.58 per $1 lost it wins $11.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized+$83
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions14
Markets (closed)7 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bellucci vs. Bublik: Match O/U 21.5 Under 64¢ 100¢ $30 $47 +$17 (+55%)
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Federico Bondioli 57¢ 63¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+11%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Kimberly Birrell 71¢ 69¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
ITF Blois: Amandine Hesse vs Jasmijn Gimbrere Amandine Hesse 70¢ 100¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+43%)
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Facundo Yunis Alexandre Aubriot 34¢ 48¢ $10 $13 +$4 (+41%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 35¢ 100¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+186%)
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs MARKandLARRY 74¢ 14¢ $30 $6 −$24 (-81%)
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Noemi Basiletti 31¢ 6¢ $19 $3 −$16 (-82%)
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) HyperSpirit 52¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+92%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Eva Lys 37¢ 93¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+153%)
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Alexei Popyrin 39¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grey Trac 21¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Game Handicap: Game Master (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) Grey Trac 47¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
ITF Blois: Anouck Vrancken Peeters vs Lucie Nguyen Tan Anouck Vrancken Peeters 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Hesse vs Gimbrere Jun 16 $26 +$4 +17%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $30 +$23 +76%
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Paula Cembranos Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma Jun 16 $30 +$24 +79%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $2 +$8 +365%
ITF Sapporo: Yuna Sugiyama vs Miyu Nishiwaki Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $2 $0 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Facundo Yunis BUY Alexandre Aubriot 34¢ $10 26m
Bellucci vs. Bublik: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 64¢ $30 27m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 71¢ $30 44m
ITF Blois: Anouck Vrancken Peeters vs Lucie Nguyen Tan BUY Anouck Vrancken Peeters 49¢ $2 50m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 37¢ $0 1h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexei Popyrin 39¢ $27 1h
Set 1 Winner: Hesse vs Gimbrere BUY Hesse 85¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 74¢ $30 1h
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Paula Cembranos BUY Paula Cembranos 54¢ $3 1h
ITF Blois: Amandine Hesse vs Jasmijn Gimbrere BUY Amandine Hesse 70¢ $15 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $4 2h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 31¢ $19 2h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 57¢ $30 2h
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 56¢ $30 3h
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) BUY HyperSpirit 52¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Grey Trac 21¢ $11 3h
Game Handicap: Game Master (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) BUY Grey Trac 47¢ $13 3h
ITF Sapporo: Yuna Sugiyama vs Miyu Nishiwaki BUY Yuna Sugiyama 10¢ $2 3h
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma BUY Noah Karma 55¢ $30 3h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 21¢ $2 6h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 50¢ $2 7h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.52 · official $164.91 (match) · 26 history records