Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:00:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AB 0xabba…cc24 other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$522 (-15%) realized −$38 · open −$484
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$700per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$2,708now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$382
world 4% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -39.3% -45.1% 25% 25% -16.9%
≤30d 4 -39.3% -45.1% 25% 25% -16.9%
≤90d 4 -39.3% -45.1% 25% 25% -16.9%
all 4 -39.3% -45.1% 25% 25% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.1% 25% -16.9%
10% -50.3% 25% -24.8%
15% -55.1% 25% -32.1%
20% -59.5% 25% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$45 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$2,708
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$484
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage10d
Avg bet$700
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3,192 $2,708 −$484 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $82 +$117 +143%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 9m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 53m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 6h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $105 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $790 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,067 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $993 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $354 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $70 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,708.00 · official $2,708.00 (match) · 21 history records