Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:03:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AB 0xabb7…df91 crypto 555 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$136 (-2%) realized +$129 · open −$265
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate62%300W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day67.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 54% −$422
crypto 46% −$1,955
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 430 -7.9% -16.6% 67% 26% -28.1%
≤30d 430 -7.9% -16.6% 67% 26% -28.1%
≤90d 482 -13.1% -21.4% 62% 26% -31.0%
all 482 -13.1% -21.4% 62% 26% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 26% -31.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 18% -37.6%
15% -35.8% 14% -43.6%
20% -42.1% 11% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$17 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$1,111
Realized+$129
Unrealized−$265
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses300 / 182
Open positions73
Markets (closed)482 / 555
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day67.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 73 History 482 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? Yes 27¢ 100¢ $31 $113 +$82 (+266%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 22? No 83¢ 100¢ $61 $74 +$13 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? No 78¢ 100¢ $54 $69 +$15 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 22? No 84¢ 100¢ $55 $65 +$11 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 22? No 75¢ 80¢ $59 $63 +$4 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22? No 58¢ 99¢ $36 $62 +$26 (+71%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? Yes 20¢ 37¢ $28 $52 +$24 (+87%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22? No 66¢ 100¢ $30 $45 +$15 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? Yes 31¢ 44¢ $31 $44 +$13 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? Yes 44¢ 53¢ $33 $40 +$7 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22? No 62¢ 68¢ $32 $36 +$3 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 22? No 63¢ 64¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 22? No 66¢ 100¢ $18 $27 +$9 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 22? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $19 $27 +$7 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Yes 58¢ 49¢ $27 $23 −$4 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 22? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? Yes 40¢ 43¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Yes 37¢ 44¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 22? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? No 44¢ 100¢ $6 $14 +$8 (+129%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 22? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22? No 46¢ 46¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 22? No 70¢ 73¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 22 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 22 $4 +$3 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? Jun 22 $2 $0 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 21? Jun 22 $1 +$2 +177%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 22 $2 +$2 +114%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 22 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 22? SELL Yes 57¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 22? SELL No 69¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? SELL No 54¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? SELL No 51¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 90¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 64¢ $56 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 87¢ $45 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? SELL No 49¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22? SELL No 76¢ $39 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? SELL No 80¢ $35 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22? SELL No 80¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 69¢ $36 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 63¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 62¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 22? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 22? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 87¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,110.56 · official $1,110.57 (match) · 3500 history records