Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:29:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabb3…cdbf world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 404d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$1 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$8
other 18% $0
politics 15% +$1
crypto 14% $0
sports 7% $0
finance 5% +$2
tech 4% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 5 -3.1% -12.3% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 10 -11.1% -19.5% 20% 10% -10.8%
all 30 -2.4% -11.7% 53% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 7% -9.5%
10% -20.1% 3% -18.1%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage404d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 44¢ 40¢ $34 $31 −$3 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $31 $0 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $2 $0 -14%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $33 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $38 −$5 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $10 +$1 +13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $35 +$2 +6%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $6 $0 +6%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Jhonny Fernández win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $28 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? May 30 $22 $0 +1%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 29 $22 $0 -0%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in May? May 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 28 $23 $0 +1%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 26 $4 +$1 +24%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Jose Vinicius Junior win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Delhi Capitals win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 18 $24 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 44¢ $34 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $31 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $31 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 29h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $25 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $25 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $26 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $6 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $2 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $30 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $23 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $8 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $24 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $7 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $33 31d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $32 31d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $38 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $12 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 33d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 33d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 33d
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $7 357d
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 97¢ $23 363d
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY No 94¢ $23 386d
Will Jhonny Fernández win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $22 387d
Will Jhonny Fernández win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $22 387d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.71 · official $31.20 (match) · 70 history records