Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:59:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AB 0xabb2…f51f crypto 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,558 (-10%) realized −$1,556 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%68W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$593now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$165
7 days−$129
14 days−$324
30 days−$324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$2,718
other 6% +$133
sports 3% +$259
world 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +5.4% -4.6% 45% 45% -10.2%
≤30d 95 -3.2% -12.4% 48% 47% -11.5%
≤90d 95 -3.2% -12.4% 48% 47% -11.5%
all 183 -22.0% -29.4% 37% 35% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 35% -22.5%
10% -36.1% 30% -29.9%
15% -42.3% 26% -36.7%
20% -48.0% 21% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$58 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$593
Realized−$1,556
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses68 / 115
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions9
Markets (closed)183 / 192
History coverage103d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 36¢ 34¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Norway 38¢ 38¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Czechia 29¢ 28¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Norway 20¢ 20¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 3¢ 3¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $68 −$40 -60%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $214 −$75 -35%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $89 −$68 -76%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $66 −$59 -89%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$25 -48%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$118 +225%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $81 +$76 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 +$154 +428%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $122 +$96 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $88 −$62 -71%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $81 +$46 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $61 −$5 -8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $143 −$140 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $142 +$146 +102%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $41 +$126 +307%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $105 −$89 -85%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $81 +$19 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $82 +$39 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $129 −$125 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $123 +$68 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $107 +$27 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $228 −$220 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$28 -76%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $83 −$80 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $132 +$160 +122%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $31 −$6 -21%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $94 −$90 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $89 −$85 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $127 +$25 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $88 −$86 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $34 −$23 -68%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $249 −$99 -40%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $78 +$66 +85%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $67 +$37 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $73 +$151 +205%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $41 +$17 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $68 −$50 -73%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $122 −$104 -85%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $88 +$115 +130%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $88 +$98 +111%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $67 −$18 -26%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $67 +$40 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $67 +$41 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$31 +61%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$43 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 38¢ $51 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $27 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $42 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $94 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $90 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $44 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $41 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $41 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $41 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $16 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $21 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $42 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $41 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $27 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $81 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 3h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 29¢ $41 3h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 29¢ $5 3h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 3¢ $31 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 7h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $41 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $592.64 · official $592.02 (match) · 652 history records