Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:23:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AB 0xabaf…08de crypto 831 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$628 (-0%) realized −$3,188 · open −$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate62%514W / 316L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$277per market
Trades / day105.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$133
7 days−$1,882
14 days−$8,706
30 days−$3,188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,266
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -18.6% -26.4% 42% 31% -20.3%
≤30d 830 -7.0% -15.9% 62% 40% -10.8%
≤90d 830 -7.0% -15.9% 62% 40% -10.8%
all 830 -7.0% -15.9% 62% 40% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 40% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 28% -19.3%
15% -31.3% 19% -27.1%
20% -38.0% 14% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$150 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$3,188
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses514 / 316
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)830 / 831
History coverage25d
Avg bet$277
Trades / day105.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 830 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $79 $1 −$78 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $213 $0 −$213 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $156 $0 −$156 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $157 $0 −$157 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $122 $0 −$122 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $126 $0 −$126 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $151 $0 −$151 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $119 $0 −$119 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $107 $0 −$107 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $138 $0 −$138 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $232 $0 −$232 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $86 $0 −$86 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $176 $0 −$176 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $186 $0 −$186 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $133 −$126 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $74 −$70 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $165 −$157 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $65 −$61 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $79 −$76 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $23 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $191 +$830 +435%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $1,210 −$1,161 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $164 +$472 +289%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$177 +505%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $690 −$661 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $78 +$134 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $35 −$33 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $310 −$297 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $258 +$1,438 +558%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $111 −$105 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $198 −$187 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $73 −$69 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $165 −$156 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $176 −$167 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $307 −$294 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $168 +$468 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $504 +$977 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $74 −$70 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $43 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $130 −$124 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $268 −$255 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $224 −$213 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $158 −$151 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $233 −$223 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $75 −$71 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $244 −$232 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $365 +$482 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $97 +$115 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $95 −$90 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 08 $68 +$32 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 08 $76 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 08 $90 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $92 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 08 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 08 $387 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 08 $191 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 08 $327 −$322 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 08 $79 +$21 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 08 $162 −$160 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 08 $143 −$140 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $82 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $79 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $63 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $87 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $99 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $82 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $78 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $88 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $86 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $79 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $77 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $80 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $81 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $81 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.06 · official $1.06 (match) · 3500 history records