Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:08:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabaf…e4c5 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized +$16 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -96% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -97% what you keep after slip
Net edge-97%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 143d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$468
politics 3% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-96.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -93.1% -93.7% 0% 0% -93.7%
≤30d 1 -93.1% -93.7% 0% 0% -93.7%
≤90d 1 -93.1% -93.7% 0% 0% -93.7%
all 2 -96.5% -96.9% 0% 0% -94.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -96.9% 0% -94.0%
10% -97.2% 0% -94.6%
15% -97.4% 0% -95.1%
20% -97.7% 0% -95.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -93% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -97% · $-wt -93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$232 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage143d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 63¢ 62¢ $213 $211 −$2 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 43¢ 43¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Jessica Pegula vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 55¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $478 −$445 -93%
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January? Jan 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $34 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 3¢ $33 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 45¢ $275 5h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 45¢ $203 6h
Jessica Pegula vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 55¢ $22 10h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 63¢ $215 10h
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January? BUY No 2¢ $20 142d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.33 · official $243.95 (match) · 7 history records