Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:06:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AB
0xabaf…0015
weather · 278 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$12 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses177 / 99
Open positions2
Markets (closed)276 / 278
History coverage57d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 276 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days+$10
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Yes 72¢ 54¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? Yes 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 10 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 10 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 8? Jun 09 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 09 $6 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 8? Jun 09 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 8? Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 7? Jun 08 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 08 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 7? Jun 08 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 6? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or below on June 6? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 6? Jun 07 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 6? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 07 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 06 $5 −$4 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 06 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 06 $4 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 5? Jun 06 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 79% +$9
crypto 21% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL Yes 87¢ $4 20m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 95¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 93¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? BUY Yes 95¢ $4 38h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 10? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 43h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 10? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? SELL Yes 85¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 SELL Yes 67¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 10? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 BUY Yes 74¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? BUY Yes 95¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 9? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 8? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 8? BUY Yes 95¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 8? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -3.1% -12.3% 80% 26% -10.8%
≤30d 144 -3.3% -12.5% 80% 32% -9.8%
≤90d 276 -0.1% -9.6% 64% 37% -10.1%
all 276 -0.1% -9.6% 64% 37% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 37% -10.1%
10% -18.2% 25% -18.7%
15% -26.1% 20% -26.6%
20% -33.4% 16% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.47 · official $3.47 (match) · 604 history records