Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:24:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xabad…80b1 crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$127 (-15%) realized −$124 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day96.2pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$115
crypto 24% −$59
other 5% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -11.2% -19.7% 30% 24% -36.7%
≤30d 33 -11.2% -19.7% 30% 24% -36.7%
≤90d 33 -11.2% -19.7% 30% 24% -36.7%
all 33 -11.2% -19.7% 30% 24% -36.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 24% -36.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 21% -42.7%
15% -34.4% 18% -48.3%
20% -40.8% 12% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$124
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day96.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Billy Harris 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $51 −$20 -40%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski Jun 18 $257 −$6 -2%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 18 $27 −$2 -7%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$13 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $5 +$1 +17%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $38 $0 -1%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 18 $21 −$11 -54%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $114 −$59 -52%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $41 −$11 -27%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $26 +$11 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$11 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$19 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$5 -32%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Billy Harris 20¢ $3 36m
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen SELL Billy Harris 10¢ $3 39m
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 32¢ $20 1h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Billy Harris 31¢ $9 1h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin SELL Zhizhen Zhang 31¢ $9 1h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Zhizhen Zhang 18¢ $6 1h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen SELL Billy Harris 33¢ $6 1h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Billy Harris 36¢ $7 1h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin SELL Zhizhen Zhang 11¢ $7 1h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Zhizhen Zhang 39¢ $24 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 37¢ $20 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Gustavo Heide 63¢ $45 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Gustavo Heide 43¢ $29 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Gustavo Heide 36¢ $30 2h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Gustavo Heide 33¢ $29 3h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Gustavo Heide 38¢ $21 3h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 64¢ $8 3h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Gustavo Heide 41¢ $24 3h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 35¢ $20 3h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 56¢ $41 3h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Gustavo Heide 45¢ $8 3h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 48¢ $1 3h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Gustavo Heide 54¢ $10 3h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 41¢ $28 3h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 42¢ $31 3h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 36¢ $48 3h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 19¢ $27 3h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 15¢ $11 3h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 26¢ $20 4h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 43¢ $35 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 121 history records