Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:18:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AB 0xabaa…b210 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$48 (+17%) realized +$50 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day31.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$11
other 28% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +44.2% +30.5% 38% 31% +13.1%
≤30d 16 +44.2% +30.5% 38% 31% +13.1%
≤90d 16 +44.2% +30.5% 38% 31% +13.1%
all 16 +44.2% +30.5% 38% 31% +13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +30.5% 31% +13.1%
10% ← realistic here +18.0% 31% +2.3%
15% +6.6% 25% -7.6%
20% -3.9% 25% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -83% → late +172% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$9 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$50
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)16 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day31.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Under 63¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score No 58¢ 57¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $46 +$46 +101%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $5 +$40 +786%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 +$33 +650%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -51%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 47m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 48m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $15 48m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $10 56m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $20 56m
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $15 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 18h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 18h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 50¢ $6 18h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $13 18h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 44¢ $5 18h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $10 19h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $25 24h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $30 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $15 24h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.47 · official $83.47 (match) · 38 history records