Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:09:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

AB 0xaba6…6c81 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$111 (+26%) realized +$111 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate80%16W / 4L

Drawdown21%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day16.4pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+5.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+16.4%	+5.4%	80%	75%	+20.0%
≤30d	20	+16.4%	+5.4%	80%	75%	+20.0%
≤90d	20	+16.4%	+5.4%	80%	75%	+20.0%
all	20	+16.4%	+5.4%	80%	75%	+20.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover16.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.4%	75%	+20.0%
10%	-4.7%	35%	+8.5%
15%	-13.9%	25%	-1.9%
20%	-22.4%	20%	-11.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

6% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +15% → late +18% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×5.53 per $1 lost it wins $5.53

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$111

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses16 / 4

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 20

History coverage1d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day16.4

Drawdown21%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Jun 20	$11	+$13	+117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Jun 20	$10	+$5	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Jun 20	$25	+$7	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Jun 20	$25	+$3	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Jun 20	$15	+$6	+38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Jun 20	$8	+$2	+20%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner	Jun 20	$70	+$68	+96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Jun 20	$26	−$25	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Jun 20	$25	+$4	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Jun 20	$25	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Jun 20	$26	+$41	+159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Jun 19	$25	+$6	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Jun 19	$25	+$5	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Jun 19	$25	+$3	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Jun 19	$25	+$3	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Jun 19	$25	+$3	+13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18?	Jun 19	$30	+$5	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 18	$5	$0	-3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$11	9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$10	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	BUY Down	78¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$15	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	BUY Down	83¢	$8	2h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner	SELL Carstensz	100¢	$138	3h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner	BUY Carstensz	50¢	$70	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$26	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$5	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	BUY Down	87¢	$25	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$25	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	BUY Down	37¢	$26	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$25	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$31	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	BUY Down	81¢	$25	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$25	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Up	89¢	$25	21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$25	21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$1	32h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18?	BUY No	86¢	$30	33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	SELL Down	52¢	$5	33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$5	33h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records