Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:04:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xaba1…3aaf world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% −$4
other 16% +$8
sports 1% −$15
finance 1% $0
politics 0% −$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 31 +24.3% +12.4% 32% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 35 +21.4% +9.9% 31% 3% -9.6%
all 45 +23.4% +11.7% 33% 7% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.7% 7% -10.0%
10% +1.0% 7% -18.6%
15% -8.8% 7% -26.5%
20% -17.7% 7% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage534d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $59 $0 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $28 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $58 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $316 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $58 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $92 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $120 −$3 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $91 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $29 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $284 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $29 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $28 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $30 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $27 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $6 $0 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $243 +$2 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 12 $254 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 11 $232 −$2 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $2 $0 +1%
Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Feb 24 $3 −$1 -33%
Will Trump inauguration be the most viewed ever? Feb 05 $0 $0 -100%
Trump inauguration gets more viewers than Biden's? Feb 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Penguins Jan 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Liverpool vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Jan 06 $8 −$2 -29%
Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? Jan 06 $2 +$6 +354%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-05? Jan 06 $2 +$8 +317%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $30 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $30 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $27 31h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $27 32h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $5 43h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $22 43h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $28 46h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $27 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $7 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $21 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $27 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $27 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $28 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $28 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $27 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $27 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $17 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $28 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $26 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $2 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $27 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $10 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $20 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $20 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $4.00 (match) · 168 history records