Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AB 0xab9f…75f1 sports 743 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,892 (-18%) realized −$13,903 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%298W / 761L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day57.2pace
Fees−$803est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$4,810
other 17% −$37
world 1% −$545
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 436 -51.9% -56.5% 10% 10% -66.0%
≤30d 574 -40.5% -46.2% 19% 16% -45.1%
≤90d 1059 -31.2% -37.7% 28% 24% -34.2%
all 1059 -31.2% -37.7% 28% 24% -34.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.7% 24% -34.2%
10% ← realistic here -43.7% 18% -40.5%
15% -49.1% 14% -46.2%
20% -54.1% 11% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -20% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$52 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$1,207
Realized−$13,903
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses298 / 761
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$803
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1059 / 743
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$101
Trades / day57.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1059 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C MIBR Academy 17¢ 22¢ $35 $46 +$11 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Shymkent: Bekkhan Atlangeriev vs Viktor Durasovic Jun 17 $157 −$158 -101%
Will US Avellino 1912 win on 2026-04-11? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -48%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-03-11? Jun 17 $139 −$139 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Will New York Red Bulls vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Getafe CF (-1.5) Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Georgia win on 2026-03-26? Jun 17 $441 −$441 -100%
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Senators (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-04-03? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Jun 17 $1 −$23 -3350%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Atreides (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Euro Jun 17 $83 −$79 -96%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Girona FC vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Islanders Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: FC Porto (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw? Jun 17 $139 −$139 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $53 −$54 -102%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs WAZABI (BO1) - Parken Challenger Championsh Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Damac Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Du Jun 17 $10 +$3 +30%
Copa Colsanitas: Marie Bouzkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Dalma Galfi Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-03-06? Jun 17 $21 −$15 -69%
Canucks vs. Flames: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hellas Verona FC vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-03-14? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Pelicans vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Valorant: MIR vs Formulation Gaming (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Playoffs Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Kraken vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Jun 17 $169 −$169 -100%
Mexico City: Nicolas Mejia vs Tibo Colson Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Queens Park Rangers FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: CSDIILIT vs QUAZAR (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Euro Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Antalya 2: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Moyuka Uchijima Jun 17 $222 −$222 -100%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs megoshort (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Grou Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bucks vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group St Jun 17 $44 −$61 -139%
Counter-Strike: OG vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Playo Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Empoli FC win on 2026-04-06? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Brentford FC (-2.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Mexico City: Dan Martin vs Aidan Mayo Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bulls vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5 Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Sonay Kartal vs Elena Rybakina Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 7¢ $5 54m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 28¢ $29 56m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 28¢ $29 56m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 28¢ $29 56m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 28¢ $28 56m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 60¢ $61 56m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 8¢ $2 59m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 8¢ $8 59m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 9¢ $9 59m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 10¢ $10 59m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 10¢ $10 59m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 85¢ $85 59m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 83¢ $83 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 12¢ $12 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 9¢ $9 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 18¢ $18 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 63¢ $14 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 63¢ $10 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 63¢ $63 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 82¢ $82 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 82¢ $18 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 10¢ $1 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 10¢ $1 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 10¢ $0 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 15¢ $5 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 16¢ $16 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 42¢ $42 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 54¢ $49 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 37¢ $2 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 37¢ $35 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,206.56 · official $1,206.56 (match) · 3500 history records