Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:30:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AB 0xab9d…27f3 other 5 markets active 3d ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$86 (+35%) realized +$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$98
14 days+$151
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +93.2% +74.8% 100% 100% +74.8%
≤30d 5 +2.6% -7.2% 60% 60% +21.4%
≤90d 5 +2.6% -7.2% 60% 60% +21.4%
all 5 +2.6% -7.2% 60% 60% +21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 60% +21.4%
10% -16.1% 40% +9.8%
15% -24.2% 40% -0.8%
20% -31.6% 40% -10.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$35 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage13d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $105 +$98 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$3 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $105 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records