Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AB 0xab99…1895 other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$81 (-1%) realized +$14 · open −$95
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%23W / 33L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$5,319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days+$13
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$73
crypto 1% +$19
sports 1% +$2
economics 0% $0
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -56.2% -60.4% 14% 14% -69.1%
≤30d 16 -14.9% -23.0% 31% 25% -3.7%
≤90d 22 -20.0% -27.6% 36% 32% +1.7%
all 56 -5.9% -14.9% 41% 38% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 38% +3.5%
10% -23.0% 36% -6.4%
15% -30.5% 32% -15.4%
20% -37.3% 29% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$5,319
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses23 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)56 / 71
History coverage241d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $4,650 $4,638 −$12 (-0%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 49¢ $371 $301 −$70 (-19%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 81¢ $248 $251 +$3 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $80 $70 −$10 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-10%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 +$4 +206%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$9 +307%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arge Jun 17 $4 +$10 +252%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 23 $40 +$20 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 23 $11 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 23 $1 $0 +28%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $1 +$5 +488%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-12-20? Feb 23 $1 +$2 +233%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Feb 23 $2 +$2 +113%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Feb 23 $5 $0 +4%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-17? Feb 23 $5 +$3 +59%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Dec 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10? Dec 11 $1 +$2 +186%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-09? Dec 10 $1 +$2 +203%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Dec 10 $3 +$2 +72%
Spread: Bayern München (-1.5) Dec 09 $1 +$2 +150%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-12-10? Dec 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $8 +$4 +50%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München end in a draw? Dec 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 5? Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 05 $5 +$4 +72%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Bayern München (-2.5) Nov 23 $3 +$4 +133%
Will Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Nov 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26? Nov 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 19? Nov 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 19? Nov 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Nov 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-04? Nov 06 $5 +$9 +170%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02? Nov 03 $3 +$1 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $349 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $2 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 19¢ $2 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 11¢ $2 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 4d
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 56¢ $18 4d
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $199 5d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 58¢ $199 5d
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $50 5d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $607 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $5,005 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 57¢ $5 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 45¢ $5 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $3 8d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will BUY 24¢ $5 8d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arge BUY 28¢ $4 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $2 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $2 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 7¢ $2 9d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 11d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 52¢ $5 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,318.89 · official $5,318.89 (match) · 129 history records