Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab8f…99e1 other 122 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$876 (+1%) realized +$874 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate16%19W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,075per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$839now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$33
30 days+$755
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$66
other 34% +$1,579
sports 17% −$674
economics 3% −$5
culture 3% −$3
world 2% +$1
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 +2.7% -7.1% 13% 4% -7.9%
≤90d 92 -15.1% -23.2% 9% 4% -9.2%
all 121 -7.2% -16.1% 16% 10% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 10% -8.9%
10% -24.1% 9% -17.7%
15% -31.4% 9% -25.6%
20% -38.2% 7% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,521) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$12 · ×9.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$839
Realized+$874
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses19 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,075
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $837 $839 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $247 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,753 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,125 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $3,255 −$4 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3,330 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,539 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,620 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $5,192 −$6 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,632 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $2,071 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,885 −$5 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,863 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 04 $526 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 04 $788 +$2 +0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $1,625 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $1,702 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $3,370 −$4 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,074 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 21 $1,239 +$801 +65%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $2,639 −$3 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,670 −$4 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $3,137 −$4 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,521 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $359 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 05 $927 +$678 +73%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $1,275 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,065 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 19 $1,028 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,146 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $2,351 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,028 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $954 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,172 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $430 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $455 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $2,874 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $1,651 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,285 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $1,477 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $1,267 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $944 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $4,122 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $246 16m
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $247 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $837 47h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,578 4d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,579 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,651 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,653 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,683 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,686 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,652 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,654 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,537 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,539 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,618 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,620 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,626 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,629 12d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,630 12d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,632 13d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,435 13d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,437 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,512 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,515 14d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $510 14d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $511 14d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $683 17d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $684 18d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $705 18d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $705 18d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $488 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $839.19 · official $839.19 (match) · 396 history records