Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:36:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab8e…cb90 crypto 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$269 (-2%) realized −$269 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%78W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$363
7 days−$323
14 days−$731
30 days−$638
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$638
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -10.8% -19.3% 48% 48% -16.3%
≤30d 157 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 50% -14.9%
≤90d 157 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 50% -14.9%
all 157 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 50% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 50% -14.9%
10% -25.1% 50% -23.1%
15% -32.3% 50% -30.5%
20% -39.0% 49% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$65 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$269
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses78 / 79
Open positions0
Markets (closed)157 / 157
History coverage22d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 157 Trades
no open positions (78 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $69 −$66 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $71 −$69 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $69 −$66 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 26 $70 +$60 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 26 $70 −$68 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $72 +$58 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $97 −$94 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $69 +$61 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 25 $69 −$66 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 25 $96 +$84 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $70 −$68 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $71 −$68 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $69 −$66 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $69 −$66 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $97 +$83 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $70 −$68 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $70 −$67 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $69 +$61 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $69 +$61 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 24 $69 −$66 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $74 +$56 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $69 +$61 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 24 $69 −$66 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $62 +$68 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $70 −$68 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $95 +$85 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $72 +$58 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $71 −$69 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $76 −$73 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $71 −$69 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $73 −$71 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $106 +$74 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $73 −$71 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $70 +$60 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $70 +$60 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $71 +$59 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $69 +$61 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $70 +$60 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $72 +$58 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $69 −$66 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $71 +$59 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $70 −$68 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $70 +$60 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $74 −$72 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $72 +$58 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $69 −$66 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $69 +$61 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $71 +$59 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $69 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $71 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $70 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $70 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $72 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $97 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $69 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $69 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $96 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $70 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $71 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $69 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $69 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $97 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $70 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $70 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $69 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $69 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $69 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $74 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $69 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $69 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $62 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $70 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $95 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $72 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $71 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $76 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $71 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 245 history records