Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:38:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AB 0xab86…8a4a crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%20W / 10L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$813per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$7
other 30% −$8
economics 20% −$5
crypto 11% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 30 +0.2% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,022) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses20 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage231d
Avg bet$813
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP reach $2.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 01 $69 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? May 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? May 06 $63 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on March 19? Mar 27 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 18 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Mar 18 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 02 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 02 $17 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 02 $86 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 9? Feb 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 24? Jan 29 $33 $0 +0%
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 17 $3,820 −$4 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $3,827 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 14? Jan 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 07 $3,100 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 07 $3,119 −$3 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 5? Jan 07 $38 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 26? Dec 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 8? Dec 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 4? Dec 08 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 1? Dec 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 1? Dec 01 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 10? Nov 30 $50 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 07 $2,022 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 07 $2,023 −$2 -0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Nov 07 $2,026 −$2 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 06 $2,028 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $2.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 42d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $69 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $63 89d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $50 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $86 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $16 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 114d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 9? BUY No 100¢ $28 136d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $25 147d
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $50 147d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $55 147d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 24? BUY No 100¢ $33 152d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL No 100¢ $3,816 159d
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY No 100¢ $3,820 159d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $3,823 159d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $3,827 159d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 162d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $3,097 168d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $3,100 168d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $3,107 168d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3,110 168d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $3,116 168d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $3,119 168d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 171d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $33 176d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $35 180d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 181d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.88 · official $92.88 (match) · 216 history records