Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:07:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab80…4767 world 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate31%13W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$8
14 days+$12
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$8
sports 30% −$13
other 23% +$2
politics 10% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +4.9% -5.1% 62% 12% -7.6%
≤30d 24 +2.6% -7.2% 38% 8% -8.5%
≤90d 34 +1.0% -8.6% 32% 6% -9.2%
all 42 -5.1% -14.1% 31% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 7% -9.6%
10% -22.3% 5% -18.3%
15% -29.8% 2% -26.2%
20% -36.7% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses13 / 29
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage534d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +21%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $46 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $32 +$2 +6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $42 +$3 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $69 +$2 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $46 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $45 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $64 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $20 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $19 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $58 +$4 +7%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $21 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $41 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $30 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $2 $0 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $37 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $37 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $41 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $42 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $265 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $265 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $265 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $265 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $265 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $12 −$1 -12%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $7 −$1 -15%
Minnesota vs. USC Feb 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Liberty vs. New Mexico State Feb 14 $4 +$2 +52%
Denver vs. North Dakota Feb 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Troy vs. Louisiana Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Aston Villa wins the Premier League? Dec 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Dec 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 30 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $40 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $6 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $19 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $15 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $4 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $28 33h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 40h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $7 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $38 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $42 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $16 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $38 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $46 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.71 · official $0.00 (match) · 174 history records