Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:42:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab7f…a3dc other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 687d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$1
world 22% −$11
sports 17% −$1
culture 14% $0
other 10% +$2
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.7%
all 29 -4.0% -13.1% 48% 14% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 14% -9.8%
10% -21.5% 10% -18.4%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

687d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage687d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $402 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $180 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 19 $155 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $800 −$1 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 05 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $254 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $280 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 13 $134 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Hasanabi be unbanned from Twitch by March 31? Feb 15 $2 $0 -0%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 25 be less than 1 Jan 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the January mee Jan 31 $1 $0 +2%
Congressional term limits in 2025? Jan 31 $2 $0 +5%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Jan 31 $2 $0 +25%
Will Snowflake say "Hiring" during earnings call? Dec 25 $1 $0 +1%
Honor of Kings: FULL SENSE vs Hong Kong Attitude - Game 1 Winner Dec 25 $2 −$1 -46%
Open Championship – Hole in One? Sep 01 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Astralis win the FISSURE Playground 1 Tournament? Sep 01 $4 −$1 -14%
Israel military action on Yemen before June? Jul 15 $4 −$3 -68%
Will GPT-5 be released by May 31? Jul 15 $2 $0 -0%
Will Kieran Culkin win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "A Real Pa May 23 $3 $0 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 1? Feb 12 $4 $0 +2%
Will Olympiacos beat Twente? Jan 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Slovan Bratislava win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 12 $329 +$1 +0%
Will Ajax beat Maccabi TLV? Dec 06 $13 +$4 +33%
Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Nov 07 $26 +$1 +2%
Trump post about a memecoin before election? Oct 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will there be less than 625 points scored NFL week 1? Oct 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Aug 13 $813 −$9 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $202 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $180 1h
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $155 1h
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $155 3d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $201 3d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $200 3d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $201 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $180 3d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $400 45d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $299 45d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $254 45d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $254 45d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $300 45d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $400 45d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $399 45d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $400 45d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $141 67d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $134 67d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $134 70d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $140 70d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $139 70d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $140 70d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 122d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 123d
Will Hasanabi be unbanned from Twitch by March 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 138d
Will Hasanabi be unbanned from Twitch by March 31? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 139d
Will Hasanabi be unbanned from Twitch by March 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 139d
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 25 be less than 1 BUY No 100¢ $1 175d
Honor of Kings: FULL SENSE vs Hong Kong Attitude - Game 1 Winner BUY FULL SENSE 98¢ $1 207d
Honor of Kings: FULL SENSE vs Hong Kong Attitude - Game 1 Winner SELL FULL SENSE $0 207d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records