Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AB 0xab7f…df25 crypto 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%157W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 8 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 45 -0.7% -10.1% 96% 0% -9.2%
all 165 +0.1% -9.4% 95% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$20 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses157 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)165 / 166
History coverage270d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? No 100¢ 100¢ $128 $128 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $127 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $126 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $125 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 4? Jun 02 $125 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $124 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? May 18 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 10 $123 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 8? May 09 $122 +$1 +1%
Ethereum above 2,355 on May 1, 2AM ET? May 01 $122 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 75,400 on May 1, 12AM ET? May 01 $59 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 75,800 on May 1, 12AM ET? May 01 $63 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,305 on April 30, 10PM ET? May 01 $122 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 75,000 on April 30, 12PM ET? May 01 $46 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 75,400 on April 30, 12PM ET? May 01 $75 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 74,400 on April 30, 10AM ET? Apr 30 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 75,200 on April 30, 10AM ET? Apr 30 $28 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 75,600 on April 30, 10AM ET? Apr 30 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 74,800 on April 30, 10AM ET? Apr 30 $48 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 73,800 on April 30, 2AM ET? Apr 30 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 73,400 on April 30, 2AM ET? Apr 30 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 76,600 on April 30, 6AM ET? Apr 30 $102 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 74,000 on April 30, 12AM ET? Apr 30 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 73,600 on April 30, 12AM ET? Apr 30 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 77,000 on April 29, 10PM ET? Apr 30 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 77,400 on April 29, 10PM ET? Apr 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $121 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12AM ET Apr 28 $2 −$1 -43%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 20-26? Apr 28 $121 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $121 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 19? Apr 21 $120 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $120 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $120 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12? Apr 14 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 4? Apr 05 $119 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 01 $119 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 23-29? Mar 30 $118 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $117 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $116 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 March 16-22? Mar 23 $115 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $115 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 9-15? Mar 15 $114 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 12? Mar 13 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $113 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $128 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $127 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $126 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $126 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $125 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $125 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $125 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $124 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $124 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $124 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $124 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $123 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 8? BUY No 99¢ $122 41d
Ethereum above 2,355 on May 1, 2AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $122 46d
Bitcoin above 75,800 on May 1, 12AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $63 47d
Bitcoin above 75,400 on May 1, 12AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $59 47d
Ethereum above 2,305 on April 30, 10PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $122 47d
Bitcoin above 75,400 on April 30, 12PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $75 47d
Bitcoin above 75,000 on April 30, 12PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 47d
Bitcoin above 75,600 on April 30, 10AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 47d
Bitcoin above 75,200 on April 30, 10AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 47d
Bitcoin above 74,800 on April 30, 10AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $48 47d
Bitcoin above 74,400 on April 30, 10AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 47d
Bitcoin above 76,600 on April 30, 6AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $102 47d
Bitcoin above 73,800 on April 30, 2AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 47d
Bitcoin above 73,400 on April 30, 2AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 48d
Bitcoin above 74,000 on April 30, 12AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 48d
Bitcoin above 73,600 on April 30, 12AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 48d
Bitcoin above 77,000 on April 29, 10PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $21 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.94 · official $127.94 (match) · 350 history records