Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:26:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AB 0xab7c…c3c9 crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$326 (+34%) realized +$326 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$378
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +39.6% +26.3% 57% 57% +27.0%
≤30d 14 +39.6% +26.3% 57% 57% +27.0%
≤90d 14 +39.6% +26.3% 57% 57% +27.0%
all 14 +39.6% +26.3% 57% 57% +27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.3% 57% +27.0%
10% +14.2% 57% +14.9%
15% +3.2% 57% +3.8%
20% -7.0% 57% -6.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +46% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$63 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$326
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $42 +$58 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $42 +$76 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $104 +$113 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $84 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$49 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $53 +$104 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$86 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$66 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $106 +$111 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $106 +$142 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $104 −$99 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $53 −$50 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records