Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:34:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AB 0xab7c…eb58 world 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$338 (+5%) realized +$339 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate36%34W / 61L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% +$2
world 25% −$3
sports 23% +$226
politics 19% +$99
economics 2% $0
weather 1% +$12
tech 1% $0
culture 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 23 +1.0% -8.6% 39% 9% -9.6%
≤90d 73 +0.2% -9.4% 27% 3% -9.6%
all 95 +3.0% -6.8% 36% 7% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 7% -4.4%
10% -15.7% 3% -13.6%
15% -23.8% 3% -21.9%
20% -31.3% 2% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×19.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×24.15 per $1 lost it wins $24.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$339
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses34 / 61
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage527d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $52 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $51 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $52 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $94 +$2 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $21 −$1 -5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $49 −$2 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $97 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $54 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $137 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $7 +$2 +22%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $49 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $97 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $6 +$1 +13%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 27 $1 $0 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $4 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $46 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $57 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $12 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $39 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $98 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $48 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $120 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $56 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $152 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $101 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $151 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $99 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $53 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $131 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $97 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $116 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $48 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $93 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $62 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $49 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $106 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $47 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $47 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $52 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $52 22h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $47 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $44 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $4 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $52 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $52 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $47 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $20 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $21 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 79¢ $47 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $49 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $18 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 12d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $54 12d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $54 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.69 · official $45.94 (match) · 347 history records