Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab7b…f350 world 284 markets active 0h ago coverage 587d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,769 (-1%) realized −$2,823 · open +$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%139W / 136L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,059per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$3,215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$549
7 days+$810
14 days+$906
30 days+$2,076
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$12,507
politics 37% +$9,317
other 13% +$4,889
economics 5% −$953
tech 2% −$124
crypto 2% −$596
finance 0% +$73
sports 0% −$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -20.8% -28.3% 50% 50% +9.4%
≤30d 25 -4.6% -13.6% 56% 56% +11.1%
≤90d 75 +0.5% -9.1% 56% 55% -20.1%
all 275 -8.8% -17.4% 51% 42% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 42% -9.5%
10% -25.3% 35% -18.2%
15% -32.6% 28% -26.1%
20% -39.2% 18% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$870) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$376 vs −$388 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$3,215
Realized−$2,823
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses139 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)275 / 284
History coverage587d
Avg bet$1,059
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 69¢ 94¢ $800 $1,096 +$296 (+37%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 62¢ 69¢ $850 $936 +$86 (+10%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 48¢ 50¢ $660 $677 +$17 (+3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 72¢ 88¢ $282 $347 +$65 (+23%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 47¢ 34¢ $94 $69 −$25 (-27%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 30¢ 18¢ $90 $55 −$35 (-39%)
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 58¢ 16¢ $70 $19 −$51 (-73%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 21¢ 35¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+65%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 47¢ 0¢ $305 $0 −$305 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $3,015 +$585 +19%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $585 +$376 +64%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 16 $222 −$116 -52%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $50 −$5 -10%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in June? Jun 09 $303 +$40 +13%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $34 −$34 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $21 −$16 -78%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $175 +$144 +82%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $310 −$5 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $200 +$78 +39%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $143 −$102 -72%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 in June? Jun 05 $39 −$21 -54%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $200 +$51 +26%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $675 −$413 -61%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 02 $21 −$18 -87%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $120 +$56 +47%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $534 +$101 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,178 +$459 +39%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,600 +$792 +50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $200 +$77 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $85 +$66 +77%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $205 −$185 -90%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 15 $753 +$450 +60%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 14 $317 −$200 -63%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $355 +$283 +80%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $110 −$110 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 07 $208 +$115 +55%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $82 −$82 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 05 $1,691 +$637 +38%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 04 $45 +$57 +127%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 04 $64 +$136 +212%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $20 +$42 +206%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $233 +$170 +73%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $234 +$117 +50%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $2,222 +$453 +20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $497 +$461 +93%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 25, 2026? Apr 27 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $50 +$24 +47%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 25 $200 +$141 +71%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 25 $62 +$50 +82%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 20, 2026? Apr 23 $45 −$45 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 23 $349 −$121 -35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $305 +$140 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $150 23m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $100 47m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $500 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $171 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $100 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,894 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $200 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $452 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $28 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $10 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $54 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $28 10h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $57 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $121 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $49 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $2 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $139 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $60 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $2 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $90 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $764 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $5 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $800 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $5 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $75 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $9 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $1 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $25 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $72 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $15 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,215.20 · official $3,215.23 (match) · 2716 history records