Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:49:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

AB 0xab76…478c sports 3 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$52 (+48%) realized +$58 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +146% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +122% what you keep after slip

Net edge+122%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$36per market

Trades / day3.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+122.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+145.6%	+122.2%	100%	100%	+122.2%
≤30d	1	+145.6%	+122.2%	100%	100%	+122.2%
≤90d	1	+145.6%	+122.2%	100%	100%	+122.2%
all	1	+145.6%	+122.2%	100%	100%	+122.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+122.2%	100%	+122.2%
10%	+100.9%	100%	+100.9%
15%	+81.5%	100%	+81.5%
20%	+63.7%	100%	+63.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +146% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +146% · $-wt +146% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$52 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$64

Realized+$58

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$36

Trades / day3.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$50	$43	−$7 (-14%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$20	$21	+$1 (+5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 22	$36	+$52	+146%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	40¢	$36	27h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$51	28h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$21	28h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.09 · official $64.09 (match) · 5 history records