Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:08:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AB 0xab72…0888 crypto 1148 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 125d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$19,086 (-4%) realized −$19,086 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%595W / 552L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$428per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Fees−$1,994est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 126d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$28,279
sports 25% −$6,241
other 11% +$3,889
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -22.1% -29.6% 43% 14% -43.5%
≤30d 221 +0.2% -9.3% 52% 49% -11.2%
≤90d 710 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 45% -17.6%
all 1147 -5.0% -14.0% 52% 47% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 47% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 41% -23.3%
15% -29.8% 36% -30.7%
20% -36.6% 32% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$246 vs −$321 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19,086
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses595 / 552
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$1,994
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1147 / 1148
History coverage126d ⚠
Avg bet$428
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1147 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 24 $102 −$23 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $38 +$33 +88%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $47 +$3 +6%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $307 −$260 -85%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A Jun 24 $285 +$23 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $312 −$161 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $470 −$309 -66%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,603 −$250 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $57 +$38 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $415 +$85 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$15 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $76 −$57 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $43 +$14 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $207 +$228 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $351 +$283 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $107 −$57 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$52 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$39 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $175 −$134 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$25 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$49 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $118 +$21 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $347 +$125 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $145 −$145 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $108 +$97 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $56 +$52 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$27 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $110 −$81 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $336 +$151 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $90 −$58 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $162 +$33 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $87 +$76 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $150 −$92 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $276 +$174 +63%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,566 −$1,955 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $203 +$41 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$146 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $347 +$162 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $298 −$298 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $207 +$192 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $41 14m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on SELL 16¢ $41 14m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 19¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $38 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on SELL 15¢ $38 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 19¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 2h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $46 2h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $307 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A SELL 42¢ $308 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 38¢ $285 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $151 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $151 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $161 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $44 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $117 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $470 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 49¢ $557 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $770 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $57 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $36 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $51 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $201 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $204 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $19 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $19 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records