Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AB 0xab6e…b9d8 sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$224 (+55%) realized +$226 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip
Net edge+47%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%19W / 14L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$14
sports 33% +$158
other 25% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+46.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +42.5% +29.0% 55% 48% +1.7%
≤30d 31 +42.5% +29.0% 55% 48% +1.7%
≤90d 31 +42.5% +29.0% 55% 48% +1.7%
all 33 +62.2% +46.7% 58% 52% +42.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +46.7% 52% +42.7%
10% +32.7% 45% +29.0%
15% +19.9% 42% +16.6%
20% +8.1% 42% +5.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +119% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.75 per $1 lost it wins $2.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$226
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses19 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions14
Markets (closed)33 / 48
History coverage229d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 37¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 31¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 37¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$62 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$5 +165%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$6 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -77%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$4 -82%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +64%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +70%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -29%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$7 +146%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$11 +1116%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$7 +134%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +11%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $21 +$25 +120%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $20 +$121 +614%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $24 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 57m
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 3¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.95 · official $89.96 · 75 history records